AKAP Energy has worked with US Customs, which has again led to a revision of US helium exports to Canada from Jan'22 to Dec'24. Our proprietary data has consistently indicated that US exports were overstated in most months, as determined by comparing reported US exports to imports reported by recipient countries. For instance, in months such as Jan'24 and Mar'24, exports were overstated by a factor of 2x. Additionally, derived pricing data for US exports to Canada during this period appeared erroneous. It remained fixed at US$142/mcf since May'23, indicating that customs may have used this price point incorrectly to calculate volumes.
Even after these recent corrections, we believe certain data points require further investigation. Derived unit pricing remains significantly below international traded levels in certain periods, raising questions—such as in Sep'24, when prices reportedly fell to US$68/mcf. Over the last year (excluding the Sep’24 data point) implied pricing has averaged US$243/mcf, which is ~50% below our global average import price. While such pricing could reflect long-term contracts or transfer pricing effects, the presence of sharp spikes still indicates ongoing data quality issues.
In the meantime, we recommend using our US export estimates, derived directly from importing countries, as the most reliable figures. However, in the case of Canada, it takes the data directly from US customs, which means that there is no way to double check the data.
US Exports to Canada (mmcf)
US Export Pricing to Canada (US$/mcf)
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